Stocks to watch tomorrow
So I have INRA VRA CSCT ARGA TTP MGRM.
Of course, HMIT shall be well played into next week, it is exactly the same type of the game repeatedly played for several days until the promo is over (and all of his other stocks acted in the same pattern in the past) - open gaps up, tanks, shakes the tree, acts like a POS, find the bottom, bounces 30-50%, going strong, finish in green.
11 comments:
CSCT - did well, opened at 13.05, closed at 13.93 (HOD).
TTP opened at 2.09, high to 2.25, finished at 2.21, I didn't buy, still try to avoid NYSE/AMEX stocks.
INRA had a very nice volume, a lot of buys at 0.11, I didn't buy.
VRA - this AMEX penny, it had a good day too, low 0.04 and high to 0.05, I watched it, didn't buy AMEX.
ARGA - low $1.20, high at 1.31, looks like it wants to go much higher next week, I didn't buy either.
MGRM - opened at 1.63 and went to 1.69, dipped to the low of $1.60, and finished at 1.66.
Overall, I like this filter very much. Even though it is a daily scan, still generates nice results for the next day. I think I have confidence in playing the stocks generated by this filter.
Of course, as what I said, this HMIT's intraday move is very predictable.
http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-25/smallka66.png
PT, sorry to hear about your exp. with your broker. I think IB is ok, you should switch back to IB.
Maybe start the process now and when u r back from China, it is ready to go.
If you do not have enough cash, I might be able to help a little (of course, not totally free money; just to help you get through the day trading limit. With your skills, it seems would not take long. We can talk about that if you really need; I still have quite a few questions about you personally that i need to ask). Maybe we should meet in Tianjin for a couple of hours for coffee? what do you say?
Daniel, thanks for the kind offering, I appreciate it, you are a very nice man. Certainly we could meet in Tianjin.
With the capital draw/type of stocks I trade, I don't use a lot of capital. I only put $1K or max $3K into these stocks trade under $3. the cheaper the stock, the less capital I put in. For a stock trades under 0.01, I only put $500 into them. If I have a lot of capital as I did in the past, I might not be as disciplined as I am now, I might want to flip GOOG all day and get lost. So there is a good side of it :-)
The problem is, I have to take out at least $5K each month from the account, it drains the capital fast, now I am facing this problem again as it the end of the month. For the past two weeks, I have not done as well as I did early, even though I didn't lose, but I didn't make as much as I expected. I've to change my strategy, no more daytrading these big $ NAS stocks, with the so little shares I trade, I pay more commissions and pay more stop losses per trade, simpe not profitable, I should just sit on some cheap stocks I know very well, know what's going on behind it, hold it for a few more days, pay less commissions. If I just holded my 4800 shares of HMIT, I would be up almost $4K in a few days, and HMIT will have a big day next Tuesday according to my source, I knew it and I mentioned in my very first post on the stock. I just didnt' follow through on the stock.
As far as IB, tell you a story, you would be amazed. Years ago when I was with IB, maybe around year 2000-2003, IB's Java WTS was very buggy and a POS, it hung so many times, it caused me a lot of trouble. The biggest problem for using IB was they're not penny stocks friendly. At one time, I bought five million shares of a stock at 0.0001, the cost was $500, guess what, IB charged me $1500 or $2500 on commissions, basically, they charged me $0.0015 or 0.0025 per share! The stock had to go up at least 1000% to cover these commissions. When I sell, I would be charged the same amount of commissions, it was total insane. I talked to them, they said all commissions were per share basis, no exceptions - it doesn't matter if the stock is a NAS or penny. I was very upset, closed the account, transferred everything to Etrade. I think IB changed their commission schedules to bundled and unbundled around 2004-2005, but if I buy a penny stock with one million shares, I still need to pay a few hundred dollars on commissions.
PT, you are absolutely right with your self-evaluation on your own style of trading and your strength and weakness. This actually answer my question why you are not very rich yet even though your are such an amazing great trader! I guess everyone has his own weakness given by God (or whoever) with his strength, no exceptions, and that is why we are human, ot god.
Now I see you more fully than before. Since you realized your weakness, I do think you are on your way to control it and most probably achieve success!
One thing actually strikes me is that I found when you are successful in one stock or another, you actually know a lot of background of it. I won't call this insider story, but in nature it is. Hey, I am not saying there is anything wrong with it, all the Wall Street big guys and invt bankers are doing it, we are not wrong in doing similar things. Thinking about myself, all my winning trades with a Chinese ADR is actually because I know someone in the company, and know their biz healthiness. This you can also call it due diligency. Due to this "unfair" advantage, I dared to ride out TA wise very weak stocks, and just totally ignore TA. FMCN for example, I bought 600 shares at 38.28 one day, it tanked since all the way to 35, that is a huge loss for me. TA wise, it is extremely weak, any trader would have cut loss fast and run. But I hold on, even with big nervousness. What happened later? It runn up 15 days in a row (TA wise many traders would have taken profit); I did not, exit all pos. at about 45.25.
So, objectively thinking, my edge is not my TA, is my source of info. It sometimes strikingly scares me when I think about you -- your edge in many times is not actually all the colorful charts and TA training and bkground (eventhough they are extremely useful in your day trading), but your conviction on a stock's future. And the source of the conviction? Insiders (for the sake of simplicity, we call it; treat it not as a legal term please).
So, this lead me back to the real challenge to you (since I know you, I never challenged you, and I think that is not fair, I am the sole beneficiary; now I am aiming at change that a bit so that hopefull you will benefit); please take the following comment the friendly way, I do not gain anything from saying the following, just trying to analyse the situation from an objective point of view:
(1) How long your insider info edge on the penny stocks will last? If it will for the rest of you life, I think you have found the holy grail. I solute you. But if it will not last forever, would you think it would be very harsh on you?
(2) By controling the total capital you can trade you are trying you control your emotional weakness (over trade or over position sizing), this is innovative, but this does not feel right. By doing this (and withdraw 5k a month), you are only aiming at trading for a living. Well, I do not know you, but I think no trader in their right mind want to trade for the rest of their life for a mediocre living. How can you organically grow and scale up? Scalability is the problem for you to solve (you must know the term since you were a computer security guy for many years).
(3)back to you emini trading, I dare to challenge you: you were scared out of this trading vehicle; you still dare not to face yourself in a healthy and constructive way on this issue. Think about it!
Too much for one comment. Talk to you another time. Again, do not take all the above personally, it is food for thought, I want to help, and by analyzing you, I am self examine myself too.
BTW, I think I have many of your prob. too. And I think willness to learn and always being able to excel in our learning does not make us a better trader. With no scalability, we are still internally weak and nobody. By sitting at the Bline chat room, I finally think I gave up my pride and cave in to admit to myself, I am really weak internally trying to find the whole grail. There is no such thing, and many eyes see things better and clearer, that is why I like this chat room. There is this sense of humbleness by every trader, and togather to fish in the market. To tell you the truth, I used to trade Emini and lose $13000 in a day (actually 5 minutes). Since then I sweared I will never trade it, and only options and stocks. It took me about 2 months to overcome this denial of admiting my mistakes.
I think I recovered from that and decided to come back to trade it again, step by step, learning all systems of Buffy (actually I understand all the TA indicators and have been using them for years), but relearn them is very educating. Why back to Emini, because it does not (1) need insider info (2) outside market hour research (actually another form of searching for that bit of insider knowledge); so that I can put all my time in backtesting and improve the TA system. And most importantly, it does scale!
Oh, another point, IB seems to have come a long way, it still has bugs, but apparently a strong engineering team to fix them frequently.
I do experience glitches myself several times, even though I have been with them for only two weeks. So, your caution is right.
Daniel, thanks for the long message.
In fact, if I know just one insider of a company, I would have made millions. You are probable new on how the momo plays started or ended, none would want to tell you a thing before it started if you don't contribute $$$$$ to their plays first. With the kind of capital I have, go figure, don't expect to get a full scope of what's going on.
I was just second guessing on how their plays would pan out based on the past experience, of course, I did a lot digging, confirmation, and research.
For example, on GZGT, NONE told me a thing on it, I saw the ticker ($1-2 stocks trading 52 weeks high), read hundreds if not thouands pages of their SEC filings, read 3-4 of their SB2s, 8Ks, and 10Qs. In one page of their 100-200 pages of SB2 filing, I found one line mentioned a company called Leasing Standard Limited which financed $400K to the company, I went through coprorate DD sites and digged this company out, I found this company has the same address as another company (different name) made a similar deal with CVDT. By looking at the MM line up and compare it with CVDT, I concluded it was the same CVDT group is doing GZGT - of course, it is just a guessing, and I don't know their game plan. After I looked at GZTG's promo material this weekend, it had the same pictures as were appeared on CVDT's promo, so I'm 99% sure about my first logic conclusion.
If I know the insiders or detailed game plans on playing TUBR/ESRG/HMIT, I could turn $20K to $60K easily in the past two weeks, I wouldn't so cautious to play them with just $1K or $2K, you get a picture?
What I wanted to say is in my previous post, I've played stocks under $10 for so many years, I know what size to use, how to play them with charts etc, I won't be able to play stocks trade over $20 or higher or futures with huge leverage. If I've a niche in something, why change the strategy, why try something new?
My biggest weakness is lack of persistence - doing the same thing over and over repeatedly even if it is boring and dull. I always want to try something new, even on my charts or stocks, It is good and bad. I had been worked over 10 years in IT field and was the sharpest guy in the group, I gave up the job, and I never wanted to get back in IT or find another job. My former boss is still a good friend, I trade his Etrade account, he used to ask me if I wanted to join him (haha, not anymore).
I did very well on trading micocap stocks, then I tired of MM games, tired of slow action and slow execution, I looked for excitment and actions, I switched to trade big board NASDAQ and then futures.
Slowly, I realized most retail future traders just won't be able to make consistent profits. You need more than the pretty charts to make a career in trading futures. You could have perfect chart and TAs, but you still lose everyday in trading futures.
I've two neighbors, both of them were very good in trading ER2, they pursaded me to trade ER2. Three years later, both of them are working full time in something else. Three years ago when I was at Ensign chat room, Buffy's Bline room had over 300-400 traders everyday, last Friday, when I was in the chat room, there were only 20-30 traders in the Bline room, quite a big drop. Three years ago, there were near two thousand traders in three of Woodie's CCI chat rooms, now I read only a few hundreds are in his chat rooms.
In my friend's words, trading futures are pure gambling, you cannot use the same type of DDs as you would do on stocks. For God's sake, I would never go back to trade futures and have nightmare everyday.
Trading the market sounds simple but it NOT easy, it is harder than trade individual stocks. I had never mentioned this before. I felt foolish about to talk about what I did. My worst day in my trading was exactly four years ago this past week, when the Fed announced to increase the interest rate for the first time.
I remember it vividly because it was my worst Memorial weekend. I thought the increase in interst rate would negatively affect the economy, I bought $40K QQQQ puts (400 puts) before the announcement. Most surprisingly, QQQQ rallied huge after Greenspan's interest rate hike, QQQQ was up almost $2 from the low of the day.
The talking gangs and "experts" at CNBC all said the rate increase had already priced in the market, the market will move forward, look for rally continues to the Memorial weekend and the summer. I sold my puts at a HUGE loss, then immediately I bought $40K calls before the market close, QQQQ finished at HOD and it went much higher in after hour. I thought I could get my loss from these puts back the next week.
The next morning, another surprise, futures went down huge, QQQQ gapped down open $1, QQQQ never bounced that day, it went down over $2, in fact, the market continued to go down for weeks after that Memorial weekend. I waited and waited, market bounce never came, I sold all my calls for another HUGE loss. If I holded all my puts bought before the Fed announcement, I could make six figures.
So why I didn't get rich? I gambled on NASDAQ and the MARKET, didn't have a game plan or strategy, didn't understand the market, my decision was influenced by "experts", sold puts and bought calls - double swords are hard to swallow. This is just one huge lesson I memoerizd forever, NONE knows where the market goes in the future, you're your own expert, it is everyone's guess!
As far as how I go in the future, of course, I won't daytrade forever. I have my plans, my path would be the same as some of old trading buddies did, I will work on Chinese IPOs in the U.S.. I must say thanks God, I am so glad I have so many good friends, I've contacts both in China (Shanghai) and the funds here, I will act as the bridge between the two, this is my intermediate and long-term plan.
But for now, I am using these laser sharp TA tools on microcap stocks, I have very favorable edge over many others. my competiting traders have far worse tools, MANY of them even don't look at the charts at all, so did I take my stength?
PT, great response, and I really appreciate that you take the time writing these. obviously you are not taking my harsh comment the wrong way, and that is why we can both grow, I hope. Thanks again for the long response, obviously I judged something wrong. You have been through so much! Keep the consistant! BTW, I added another 200 shares at 2.00 of GZGT. Thanks.
PT, I have to add, after reading about your GZGT research, I have to say, it can only be done by you--with two Ph.Ds and the training and decipline coming with them, this is the type of due diligency that really makes the difference!
Daniel, thanks. I added 1K more too, now I've 2K shares. Today's price and volume signals something is happening.
I really like this filter, these stocks generated have legs for a few days - CSCT/ARFA/MGRM gained another 6-8% today.
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